Local News
Forecasters reduce number of predicted storms for season
By Debby Schamber
The Orange Leader
The number of hurricanes predicted by the hurricane team at Colorado State University has been reduced.
However, researchers Phillip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray said they still expect a much more active season than the typical seasons between 1950 and 2000. They predict a total of 15 storms with eight of them becoming hurricanes and four of them becoming intense hurricanes.
The team bases their forecast methodologies on a variety of climate-related global and regional predictors.
The forecast is down from the May predictions of 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.
Two named tropical storms have been recorded in 2007. They were Barry and Chantal. Andrea is listed as a sub-tropical storm, according to information received from the Colorado State University.
“Sub-tropical storms are associated with a frontal zone with a cold core low while tropical storms have warm cores,” said Jimmy Nunn, hydro-meterological technician with the National Weather Service.
The number of storms that formed in June and July isn’t relevant to the newest forecast. The change in the number of hurricanes is a result of slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Conditions have been slightly cooler over the past few weeks with the presence of a weak La Nina.
The researchers also predict a 44 percent probability of a hurricane hitting from the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville.
Orange County Emergency Management Coordinator Jeff Kelley has been hard at work to prepare citizens in the event of a hurricane by conducting awareness seminars. He recommends everyone stock enough emergency supplies to last seven days. Items for a disaster supplies kit should include packaged or canned food, water, clothing, medical items, blankets/sleeping bags, flashlight and extra batteries, battery powered radio and cash/credit cards. It is also a good idea to carry identification, important papers and copies of insurance policies. He also suggested residents prepare an emergency car kit. Items in the kit should include booster cables, tire repair/kit pump, fire extinguisher, and maps.
Evacuating as soon as possible is important and will save time on the roadways in congested traffic, he said.
For those who need help evacuating, Kelley suggested citizens contact 2-1-1.
“It is incredibly important for individuals to contact 2-1-1 and register,” Kelley said in a previous interview. “We need to know who will need assistance to evacuate. Those who wait until the last minute run the risk of not being able to leave the area.”
Reach this reporter at 409-883-3571, Ext. 2613, or dschamber@orangeleader.com
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